Talking Politics

We talk to Shahin Vallee, former economics advisor to Emmanuel Macron, about the state of the Macron presidency: from the gilets jaunes to the pensions protests, from dealing with Merkel to facing off with Putin, and from now to the next presidential election in 2022. Did Macron save the centre of French politics or has he destroyed it? Can he really be sure he'll beat Le Pen next time? And what is his plan to rescue the West? Plus, we discuss what the Griveaux and Mila affairs tell us about the state of French politics. With Helen Thompson.Talking Points:How should we relate the gilets jaunes and the pensions protests? The pensions reform is a more traditional opposition to neoliberal reforms; the gilets jaunes is different and it includes a number of people who do not regularly express themselves politically.The gilets jaunes crystallize a more profound opposition to the French political system.Macron has centralized the French system to a remarkable extent.This is in part beca

We talk about two countries going through dramatic democratic change: Ireland, where Sinn Féin came top of the vote in last weekend's general election, and Italy, where the Sardines are the latest movement trying to shake up the system. What does the Irish vote tell us about the collapse of two party politics? Does Sinn Féin's success suggest that the party has changed or that the electorate has changed? And in Italy, who or what now stands between Salvini and power? Plus we discuss whether the age of 'grand coalition' politics is now over. With Niamh Gallagher, Lucia Rubinelli and Chris Bickerton.Talking Points: In 1997 Sinn Féin got only 2% of the vote, in the recent Irish general election they got almost 25%. What explains this shift?In the 90s, the party was still connected to the IRA and the politics of Northern Ireland. Sinn Féin voters today skew young (under 45). Their major concerns are issues such as the cost of living, rent, and healthcare. The party ran and

We try to peer through the chaos in Iowa to see who won, who lost and what it means for the future of this presidential race and for American democracy. Are we heading towards a Bernie vs Bloomberg showdown? What might happen at a brokered convention? And how much damage has been done to the Democratic party brand? Plus we review Trump's State of the Union address. Great theatre - but was it great politics? With Helen Thompson and Gary Gerstle.There were no winners in Iowa. We still don’t know who actually won.Pete didn’t do well enough to break out. Bernie did well, but not as well as many people thought he would. Warren had a mediocre showing. It was really bad for Biden. It was also a bad night for the Democratic Party itself. Who benefits from Biden’s collapse?Can Mayor Pete hold the center? He would need to win New Hampshire and he probably won’t.Bloomberg is going all in with an unusual strategy: gambling on a brokered convention and focusing on TV spending a

We talk to Roberto Foa about some of the findings in his groundbreaking new report 'Global Satisfaction with Democracy'. Where are people most dissatisfied with democracy and why? Is it being driven by economic factors or is something else going on? And why does democratic satisfaction divide Europe north/south and east/west? Plus we talk about what might happen to satisfaction with democracy in the UK post-Brexit. With Helen Thompson.Talking Points: Dissatisfaction with democracy is up by about ten percentage points worldwide.Northern Europe is more satisfied with democracy than Southern Europe.Perhaps more surprising, Eastern Europe is more satisfied with democracy than Western Europe.There has been a meltdown of satisfaction in Southern Europe since the start of the Eurozone crisis. But in Germany, satisfaction levels went up after the crisis.The internal story is more complicated: the German system was responsive to the interests of German banks, but not German savers. Backla

David and Helen talk to Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor at the Economist, about the fallout from the killing of Soleimani and the future of American power. Is Trump a madman or is he a realist (or is he neither)? What sort of threat does Iran pose to American interests in the region and the wider world? And what has all this got to do with oil and climate change? Plus, in the week Trump's impeachment trial gets underway, we ask who or what can limit the power of the presidency.Talking Points: The narrative on the killing of Soleimani has changed: was this a victory for the United States?The shooting down of the Ukranian plane has put the Iranian leadership on the back foot and constrained their ability to weaponise the outrage against the United States.But when the dust settles, it might not play to America’s advantage.The Quds Force will carry on.There is a tension between the need to reassert American power in the region and the problem of Iraq.The Americans may be more disliked in I

An extra episode with Azeem Azhar, tech entrepreneur and host of the Exponential View podcast and newsletter. We talk about Azeem's predictions for what will shape politics and technology over the next decade, from climate change to artificial intelligence. Plus we discuss the Dominic Cummings agenda: will the UK government really be able to harness the dynamism of the tech start-up mindset within the hidebound structures of Whitehall? This is the first of a two part special - you can find the other half of this conversation in a couple of days at https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/exponential-view-with-azeem-azhar/id1172218725 Azeem's newsletter is here: https://www.exponentialview.co/ and the blog by Dominic cummings here: https://dominiccummings.com/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We are back for 2020 to talk about Labour's future after Corbyn. How can the party move the argument beyond Brexit? Does the voting system help or hinder Labour's chances of returning to power? And what to do about Scotland? Plus, we ask how much damage would be done if the next leader turns out to be the only man in the field. With Helen Thompson, Chris Brooke and Chris Bickerton.Talking Points: Electoral Reform seems to be a perennial issue for the Labour Party.Starmer says he wants to win a majority—but it’s hard to see how. Would electoral reform get Labour any closer to winning? In 1987, Tony Blair pointed out that there is a real risk of collapse for centre-left parties under proportional representation systems.We often think of alliance politics as being anti-Tory, but look at 2010: sometimes it works the other way.First Past the Post keeps Labour in place as the only alternative government.Is England a broadly conservative country or an anti-conservative country

 In the final episode of our American Histories series, Sarah Churchwell tells the incredible story of the politics of abortion during the 1970s. How did evangelicals go from supporting abortion to being its die-hard opponents, what did the switch have to do with the politics of race and what have been the lasting consequences for American democracy?Talking Points: A lot of people think that the U.S. abortion debate started in 1973 with Roe v. Wade, and that evangelical republicans have always been anti-abortion. Both assumptions are wrong.There weren’t many laws against abortion in the United States until after the Civil War. After the Civil War there were large waves of migration. This led to a rise of nativism. Many early abortion laws were rooted in scientific racism and anxieties over ‘race suicide.’Initially, the Democrats pandered to the Catholics by taking on a more pro-life position.Evangelicals were not particularly politically active (with a brief exception in the 1920s and 30s)

Gary Gerstle explores the forgotten history of Mexican deportations from the southern United States in the 1930's and asks how it fits into the longer story of US immigration policy up until today. From open borders to 'Build That Wall': what's next?Talking Points: Immigrant labour has always been vital to U.S. economic development.The United States presented itself as being a different kind of society. This was partially ideological, and partially a labour imperative.In the early 20th century, the labour imperative became less acute. America still thought of itself as a Protestant society.In this period, the United States implemented draconian immigration restrictions, including racialized quotas.The fear of revolutionary organized labour also affected quotas. The Jews and the Italians were targeted due to anxiety over communism and anarchism.Immigration from Mexico has always been a slightly different story.The restrictive immigration laws of the 1920s excluded the western hemisphere. Mexican

Sarah Churchwell tells the tortured history of the campaign to secure votes for women and how it was tied up with another campaign to suppress votes for black Americans. From the 15th amendment in 1870 to the 19th amendment in 1920: why the promise of enfranchisement is often not what it seems.Talking Points: The struggle for votes for women and votes for black people have been linked from the beginning.Some activists wanted to do both at once, but slavery was deemed more urgent. Of course, in practice, white lawmakers soon stripped the 15th amendment of its practical power by passing laws such as poll taxes and grandfather clauses.Many suffragettes believed that if they supported the 15th amendment, Republicans would turn around and recognize their claims, and that black legislators in particular would argue for rights for women.It didn’t work out that way.Elizabeth Cady Stanton and Susan B. Antony felt that they had been betrayed by the Republican cause.The 19th amendment is explicitly modele

Gary Gerstle talks about the journalist who brought down a business empire, when Ida Tarbell went after the power of John D Rockefeller and the Standard Oil Corporation at the start of the twentieth century. Could anyone do the same to Facebook or Amazon today?Talking Points: America’s foundational myth is about rebelling against monopolies: a monopoly of power in the hands of the King. How does an anti-monopolistic society get dominated by monopolies?Industrialization and the free economic environment after the Civil War created different conditions. The Supreme Court interpreted the 14th amendment to mean that corporations are individuals and therefore protected by the Bill of Rights.Resistance to monopolies reached a peak during the first Gilded Age.Some of the resistance was political, but some of it was journalistic.Journalists known as ‘muckrakers’ sought to expose the practices that produced extraordinary power.The reports of journalist Ida Tarbell ultimately led to the breakup of S

Gary Gerstle tells the story of Anthony Comstock, the man who tried to stamp out pornography in the final decades of the nineteenth century, using the US Postal Service as his weapon. Where he succeeded and how he ultimately failed still has echoes now, even in the age of the internet.Talking Points: States were exempted from the Bill of Rights from the 1790s until essentially the 1960s.Some states pursued extraordinary influence over the lives of their citizens. There were always states that were more liberal and more repressive.For many Americans, the government was the state government.Anthony Comstock was a moral crusader who used the postal service as the vehicle of anti-vice politics at the federal level.The federal government can only exercise the powers mentioned in the constitution.The constitution doesn’t give the government the power to regulate morals but it does give the government power over the post office.The post office was a large and efficacious bureaucracy.Any mail traveling

In the first of our American Histories series, Sarah Churchwell explains the lessons to be learned for Trump and his opponents from what happened in 1868, when President Andrew Johnson was impeached by Congress and survived his trial in the Senate by a single vote. What are 'high crimes and misdemeanours' anyway?Talking Points: What was Reconstruction?The period immediately following the Civil War and the first attempt at civil rights in the United States.The 14th and 15th amendments gave rights to black men. There were black legislators and black senators.There was also pushback, namely from what would become the Ku Klux Klan.Johnson became president after Lincoln’s assassination: his whole presidency was about overturning the gains of Reconstruction.Johnson was a unionist but also a white supremacist: he basically pardoned the entire white South. This is the conflict that led to impeachment.The immediate act that precipitated impeachment was Johonson breaking a law designed to restrain him, t

Letting you know about an exciting new series: Over the holidays David is joined by historians Sarah Churchwell and Gary Gerstle for six special editions of Talking Politics looking at crucial moments in American history. From impeachment to enfranchisement, monopoly to pornography, deportation to abortion, these are the stories that help make sense of present, as we get ready for election season 2020. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

David and Helen talk to bestselling author Michael Lewis about the effect that Trump's presidency is having on the workings of the US government and the risks we are all running as a result. From wilful ignorance to breathtaking corruption, we explore the different ways that one man can change the character of an entire political system. Plus we ask what, if anything, can be done about it.https://bit.ly/2M1yzVk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We gather the morning after the Tory triumph the night before to discuss how they did it and what it means. From Swinson's hubris to Corbyn's comeuppance, from Scottish independence to constitutional challenges, from the start of Brexit to the end of the Brexit party, we try to cover it all in a bumper edition. With Helen Thompson, Chris Brooke, Chris Bickerton, Alison Young, Peter Sloman, Kenneth Armstrong, and some overnight reflections from other TP regulars. If you want to hear more, David and Helen are also on 538 discussing the election result.Talking Points: It was a good night for the Conservatives, a bad one for Labour, and cosmically bad for the Lib Dems.The Lib Dems made a fatal mistake in backing Revoke and running a presidential style campaign.They lured fewer Tory remainers than they had hoped.Six months ago, the Conservatives were in existential crisis, and now they are like Thatcher in all her pomp.How grim are things for Labour? They lost seats they’ve held for decade

For our last pre-election episode we talk with Anand Menon, director of the UK in a Changing Europe, about what might happen to Brexit once the vote is done. What choices does Johnson face if he wins? What paths are there to a second referendum if he loses? And what will remainers do if Britain does finally leave the EU? Plus we discuss what the rest of Europe makes of it all. With Helen Thompson. Tomorrow, we talk about the result of the election as it happens.Talking Points: There are basically two scenarios: Johnson gets a majority and the withdrawal bill passes, or there’s a hung parliament.The first is slightly more probable, but the margins are getting closer.If Johnson has a majority of even one, the UK will probably leave.But we still don’t know what Johnson wants. Will he be a prisoner to the ERG or will he be a one nation Tory and go for a softer Brexit?The next crunch point will be the end of June with the extension for transition. EU leaders have been assumi

This week Helen and David explore some counterfactuals: What if Remain had won in 2016? What if Corbyn hadn't got on the leadership ballot in 2015? What if Scotland had voted for independence in 2014? We consider whether British politics would be very different or whether a lot of what we are seeing in 2019 was coming anyway. Plus we explore if there are any circumstances in which the stranglehold of the two main parties could be broken in a general election and why the Lib Dems have so spectacularly failed to break it this time.Talking Points: What would have happened if Remain won the referendum?Cameron would have remained prime minister.UKIP probably wouldn’t have collapsed. Johnson would still have been in a good position to become prime minister.What if Corbyn hadn’t been on the ballot for Labour leadership?The membership supports him, but he almost didn’t make the ballot. The next leader probably would have been Andy Burnham.Burnham would have fought the referendum wit

We talk about the impact of different online platforms on the general election campaign, from Twitter and Facebook to WhatsApp and TikTok. Is micro-targeting getting more sophisticated? Is viral messaging getting more important? Or are traditional electioneering techniques still driving voter engagement? Plus we ask whether there's any scope left for a 'December surprise'. With Charles Arthur, former technology editor of the Guardian, and Jennifer Cobbe, from the Cambridge Trust and Technology Initiative.Talking Points: In 2017, Labour ran an incredibly successful social media campaign that the mainstream media outlets missed. Is 2017 repeating itself? Facebook has gotten more transparent about the ads they are running. There doesn’t seem to be a big Labour project, at least on Facebook. The Lib Dems on the other hand have a huge operation. Labour has at least a few ads that seem extremely well calibrated.Are we more resistant to political messaging on social media

In a special live edition recorded at the Bristol Festival of Economics we discuss the impact of the technology revolution on democratic politics. Has the rise of automation contributed to the rise of populism? Is China winning the AI wars against the West? And do any democratic politicians - from Elizabeth Warren to Jeremy Corbyn - have the policies to get big tech back under control? With Rana Foroohar, author of Don't Be Evil, and Carl Frey, author of The Technology Trap, plus Diane Coyle, founder and programme director of the Bristol Festival of Economics. Next week: the Facebook election. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.