Talking Politics

A short trailer to introduce a brand new podcast called Talking Politics: HISTORY OF IDEAS. In each episode, David Runciman focuses on one writer and one piece of writing. The series of twelve will explore some of the most important thinkers and prominent ideas lying behind modern politics – from Hobbes to Gandhi, from democracy to patriarchy, from revolution to lock down. Plus David talks about the crises – revolutions, wars, depressions, pandemics – that generated these new ways of political thinking. To hear the whole series, please subscribe to Talking Politics: HISTORY OF IDEAS. From the team that brought you Talking Politics: a history of ideas to help make sense of what’s happening today.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

David and Helen talk to the economist Diane Coyle about the long-term consequences of lockdown, for the economy, for society and for our well-being. How can we measure the costs? Who are likely to be the biggest losers? And what will it mean for how we structure our economies in future? Plus we discuss what will happen if we pull back from global supply chain and we ask whether inflation is on its way.Talking Points: The crisis is revealing weaknesses in the global economy.Previous events flagged vulnerabilities of global supply chains but not to this extent. And none of this seemed to be common knowledge in political circles. It has also further revealed existing inequalities.Will we have the data that allows us to track how we are doing as we come out of it? Even collecting the normal data will be difficult. For example, is an employee on furlough employed or unemployed? The Office of Budget Responsibility said that GDP might fall by a third, a generation of econ

David and Helen talk to Adam Tooze about what we know about the crisis that we didn't know a month ago, and what we still don't have much of a clue about. From fights inside the French government to the fate of the planet, from shale gas to corona bonds, we try to join up the dots. Plus a small update recorded after news of the oil price-drop. Read 'Shockwave' by Adam Tooze in the LRB https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v42/n08/adam-tooze/shockwave.Talking Points:The dominant reality is the scale of the unemployment rate, especially in the U.S.Michigan’s unemployment rate soared to 25% in a single month.We have often seen an extraordinary policy response. The Fed’s initial policy response was a failure: they didn’t stabilize share and bond markets. But it has now, at least in part, succeeded.It also seems to have stabilized dollar funding markets.The Fed did in about 3 days what took roughly a year in ‘07/’08.Will these actions make democratic politics more difficult in the

David and Helen talk to 538's Nate Silver about how to read the pandemic data and what they mean for politics. What do we know now that we didn't know six weeks ago? How should we model the future trajectory of the disease? Where does it leave the election in November? A conversation about everything from death rates to spring breaks, and from Belgium to Biden.Talking Points: Are the COVID models we are using now better than they were before?People don’t always understand the conditional predictions behind different models.There is still a lot of uncertainty: almost every parameter of this disease remains unknown.It looks like the downward tail of this disease might be less steep than the upward tail.What is the true fatality rate? We are still behind on testing—we don’t know how many cases are undiagnosed.This number is important for making decisions about opening things up again.The number of deaths as a share of the population probably tells you more than deaths as a share of

We discuss whether British politics is about to undergo a fundamental shift. Are we seeing a new role for the state? Have the lines between the parties started to blur? What will be the long-term consequences of the economic decisions taken in the last few weeks? Plus we explore whether the crisis points in the direction of more democracy, less democracy or a different kind of democracy. With HelenThompson and Tom McTague of the Atlantic.Talking Points:The government has taken on both new powers and new responsibilities. For now they are in tandem. But will that last?The role of the state has come to the fore. Some states can’t keep their citizens safe. Others can, but perhaps at the expense of privacy or other individual liberties.The state has always had coercive power, but the state has not always acted as finance or employer of last resort. Can the state retreat from this kind of economic responsibility? This crisis means something different for those who have secure emp

In an Easter special David and Helen discuss their love of Hilary Mantel's Thomas Cromwell trilogy, and in particular the final volume The Mirror and the Light. Kings, queens, power, patronage, ghosts, myths, geopolitics, dynasties, religion, sex, bureaucracy, cruelty, death and Machiavelli - it's all here and we try to bring it all together. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

David, Helen and Gary Gerstle discuss the impact of the pandemic on the fundamentals of American politics. What have we discovered about the strengths and weaknesses of the federal system? Are the states capable of learning from each other? What part will the Supreme Court play? And can the Democrats really persist with Biden? Plus we ask who has the 'police power' and what it means to use it.Talking Points: In the US, the experience of this crisis differs significantly from state to state.For the first 100 years of US history, the power to address epidemics was exclusively in the hands of the states.In the second half of the 20th century, the federal government acquired more power, including the power to deal with epidemics.The National Public Health Service Act of 1944 vested the US government with the right to impose a national quarantine. (This power has never been utilized.)But in the last 30 years, Republicans have been attacking federal power as illegitimate. In this

Another chance to hear the prophetic interview we recorded with Michael Lewis late last year, when he warned about the risks to us all of what the Trump presidency was doing to the capacity of the American state to cope with a disaster. David and Helen reflect on how that warning looks today and what it means for the fate of Trump's presidency and for the future of American politics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

David talks to Lea Ypi in Berlin and Helen Thompson in London about the various states of emergency that have been declared around the world. We discuss the theory and practice of emergency political powers: When are they justified? How can they be legitimated? When should they end? Plus we explore what the history of Roman dictatorship can teach us about the present crisis and we ask what it means when elections start getting cancelled.Talking Points:As COVID spreads, it is ushering in states of political emergency—everywhere.Can we distinguish between legitimate and illegitimate emergency powers?States of emergency are, by definition, outside of the rules. Historically, emergencies were supposed to be compatible with some form of rule by the people. A legitimate emergency needs to be a public, where the public is seen as non-factional.There also needs to be an existential threat to the political community.The nature of the regime is also important: the people need to authorize

We catch up with Tara to reflect on what her experience of being educated without going to school means for a world where so many kids are being kept out of school. Should we be trying to replicate the education they are missing or should we be trying something new? And will the current crisis bridge or deepen existing political divides in the US? Plus another chance to hear the interview we recorded with Tara in February 2018 about her extraordinary book Educated. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

David talks to the historian Richard Evans about the history of cholera epidemics in the 19th century and what they can teach us for today. How did contemporaries understand the spread of the disease? What impact did it have on growing demands for democracy? And who tended to get the blame - foreigners, doctors or politicians? Plus we discuss whether the political changes being driven by the currentpandemic are likely to outlast the disease itself.Talking Points: Massive epidemics are a normal part of human history, even if they are infrequent.You can see this with the Plague, syphilis, and, in the 19th century, cholera.Cholera hit Europe in the beginning of the 1830s, and like many epidemic diseases, it was spread through increased communications.The conquest of North India opened up trade routes, and that’s how cholera traveled.The terrifying thing was the death rate: it was 50%, much much higher than coronavirus. When cholera hit, the response was heavily shaped by knowledge o

This week we try to assess whether the Covid-19 pandemic is driving the world together or pushing it further apart. From US-Chinarelations to tensions within the EU, we discuss how coronavirus is exacerbating existing tensions and how it might overcome them. Are we going to see new forms of international co-operation? What does it mean for globalisation? And is the politics of competence making a comeback? With Helen Thomson and Hans Kundnani from Chatham House.Talking Points:The crucial issue between the US and China right now is supply chains. A huge percentage of antibiotics used in the US involve supply chains that include China. Helen thinks it’s unlikely that we will continue to live in a world in which the production of pharmaceuticals is so integrated.Will interdependence push towards cooperation or conflict?Two big things have changed since 2008: Trump is in the White House, and central relationships (US-China, US-Europe) have deteriorated.There are different degree

David talks to Lucia Rubinelli, who is locked down in Northern Italy, about what life is like there and what politics is like too. Do people still have faith in the government? What do they think of the British approach? How have attitudes to China switched in recent weeks? Plus: whatever happened to Salvini? More from Lucia soon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We catch up with Adam on the latest twists in the crisis: from the ECB's change of heart to new threats in emerging markets. What is happening in Germany? How vulnerable is the UK? Can anything shake the hold of the almighty dollar? Much more in the weeks to come. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We talk to Adam Tooze in New York about the possible impact of coronavirus on the global financial and political system. How does this crisis compare to the financial crisis of 2008? What are the implications for the future of the Eurozone? And what have we learned already about the shift in power from the US to China? Plus we talk to Helen Thompson in London about how it intersects with the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The first of a series of conversations about the biggest event of our times. **Updated overnight**Talking Points: This crisis has revealed the fundamental weakness in the Eurozone. Lagarde’s initial comments re-exposed this fundamental faultline. The central question facing the ECB is ‘what is its role with regard to spreads?’ But over the course of the day, the panic in the markets seems to have led Frankfurt to reevaluate: they’ve come forward with a remarkable bond buying program steered towards buying both sovereign bonds and corpor

A special extra episode with Rachel Bronson, president of The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, about their decision to move the Doomsday Clock 20 seconds nearer to midnight, closer that it's ever been. She explains why the world is more dangerous now than even at the height of the Cold War and what are the risks that keep her awake at night. How close really are we to the end? Scary but essentiallistening. Recorded at the Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk.Extra listening: Aaron Rapport on Nuclear Weapons https://play.acast.com/s/talkingpolitics/db9732a4-8e39-4f8f-bb30-cf6f862036cf  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We talk to David Spiegelhalter, Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, about the science of forecasting. Who or what are the superforecasters? How can they help governments make better decisions? And will intelligent machines ever be able to outdo the humans at seeing into the future?  From Cummings to coronavirus, a conversation about the knowns, unknowns and what lies beyond that.Talking Points: Tetlock discovered that some people make better predictions than others.Some of the qualities that make this possible are deeply human, such as doggedness, determinedness, and openness to new information, but others are mathematical. Superforecasters are highly numerate: they have a sense of magnitude.Good superforecasters isolate themselves emotionally from the problem: you have to be cold about it. Think about George Soros shorting the pound. There’s a difference between having more superforecasting and more superforecasters. How do you integrate people lik

A special live edition recorded on the morning after Super Tuesday: we try to make sense of where the Democratic race now stands. How did Biden pull it off? Is there a path back for Sanders? And what role was Obama playing behind the scenes? Plus we ask which strategy now makes sense for the general election and whether Trump has got the candidate he wants or the one he fears. With Helen Thompson and Gary Gerstle, recorded at the McCrum Lecture Theatre in Cambridge.Talking PointsBiden, the comeback kid, is now the overwhelming favourite to be the Democratic nominee.Bernie has attracted more young people and Latinos, but does his coalition have a ceiling? Biden’s coalition seems to be bigger than Bernie’s. Turnout was up—for him.People were too quick to write off Biden. He was always going to do well with African Americans in the South.Party discipline kicked in: did the Democrats learn from what the Republicans failed to do with Trump?What was going on behind the scenes? And what

David and Helen catch up on the state of British politics, from Blair's advice to the Labour party on its 120th birthday to growing divisions in Johnson's Tory party. Is there really a liberal progressive coalition in Britain? Can Brexit deliver both free trade and levelling up? And what does Cummings really want? Plus we talk about Helen's lecture on Britain, the EU and geopolitics: Listen here → http://bit.ly/3a25ByaOn the 120th anniversary of the Labour Party, Tony Blair gave a speech encouraging the Labour party to 1) Move away from identity politics 2) Rebuild a progressive-liberal coalition and 3) Work out a plausible account of the future. What is Blair’s interpretation of history? Blair never reimagines the political system itself. A lot of the more compelling visions of the future are coming from the parts of the Labour party that Blair disparages. Blair did not substantially discuss Brexit, but Brexit is the most pressing future questionCan the government really re

A special live edition recorded in front of an audience in Cambridge: David talks to writer, broadcaster, academic and politician Michael Ignatieff about his personal experiences of democratic politics. From his bruising time as Liberal party leader in Canada to his recent confrontations with the Orban government in Hungary, from climate change to populism, from Johnson to Trump, we discuss what's happened to democracy and where he sees the grounds for hope. A wide-ranging conversation about the good and the bad of contemporary politics.Mentioned in this Episode: Michael’s book, Fire and Ashes, Success and Failure in PoliticsOur episode with Roberto Foa on his new report on global satisfaction with democracy Max Weber’s essay, “Politics as a Vocation”Isaiah Berlin, The Sense of Reality: Studies in Ideas and their HistoryFurther Learning:More on Orban and the Central European UniversityMore on the Centre for the Future of DemocracyDavid’s book on political hypocrisyHow wealthy countries exp