Sharkey, Howes & Javer

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss numerous topics. Jobless claims continue to drop, trending towards pre-pandemic lows. Inflation numbers continue to make headlines. Is inflation coming from the push or pull side? What’s the difference? Revenue of the largest U.S. companies continues to trend upwards. How has the recovery been overseas? Tune in to learn about all this and more! Key Takeaways: - 30-year mortgage rates slightly drop below 3% - Employment growth has favored higher educated workers - Oil inventories and demand are trending towards pre pandemic levels

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the FED and the consumer. With the upcoming FED meeting this week, we are seeing the market has already reacted to the potential of raising of rates in the somewhat near future. But with the yield curve already flattening and mortgage rates rising, what do we anticipate from the FED over the next 12 months? The consumer is still King as we see consumer spending continuing to rise into the holidays, delinquency rates in single family homes moving down, home sales increasing, and unemployment numbers getting back to pre-covid levels. Tune in to learn about all this and more! Key Takeaways: - Projected US GDP comes in at 2.0 YOY for the 3rd Quarter 2021 - Wages and salaries continue to increase at a steady pace - Crude Oil up to $83 due to tight supply - S&P 500 companies with record high profitability

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the individual consumer and the ongoing recovery. We are continuing to see personal income rise, along with disposable income going to debt payments at all-time lows. Will this continue as we head into the winter months and 2022? We are seeing the fastest recovery in permanent job losses when compared to the last 2 recessions, continued housing price growth, and solid YTD returns in the equity markets. Why are there so many “We are Hiring” signs still on every block? Tune in to learn about all this and more! Key Takeaways: - US GDP comes in at 6.7 YOY for the 2nd Quarter 2021 - Crude Oil prices hit $80 - Unemployment numbers continue to come down

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we gear up to follow and monitor holiday sales. Will this be a record year for sales? The stock market has seen some recent volatility due to a variety of headlines including corporate earnings revisions. Is this pull back healthy for the stock market long term? What is the annual wage of Chinese factory workers and what is the significance? Tune in to learn about all this and more! Key Takeaways: - 30 year mortgages rise to around 3% - Household cash and cash-equivalents continue to climb - Grain prices begin to pull back

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss Inflation and the continued economic recovery. With inflation on everyone’s mind, we discuss where it sits currently, why it’s hanging around 3.6, and what makes us think those levels won’t be here to stay. In regards to the continued economic recovery, we are seeing continued strength in equity markets, increasing rent prices in both apartment and single-family homes, and jobless claims continuing to decrease. Tune in to learn about all this and more! Key Takeaways: - The yield curve flattens a touch over the past week - Crude Oil prices stay above 70 - Steady increases in both Employee Compensation and Gov’t Social Benefits

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to analyze inflation. What are some of the key inflation indicators like money supply and the velocity of money telling us? In other topics, corporate revenues continue to climb. What does this mean for the equity markets? With so many people behind on rent, what will happen to the debt? Tune in to learn about all this and more!

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the global recovery and consumer behavior. We are seeing the global economy get back on track with a rise in corporate profits, continued low unemployment numbers, and State Revenues recovering to pre-Covid levels. With the Delta Variant becoming more prevalent across the globe, will we see this pattern continue through the end of the year? Consumer behavior is also beginning to turn up as we see increased spending volumes, low average loan balances, and core inflation remaining elevated in the short term. Be sure to tune in to learn about all this and more! Key Takeaways: - 2nd Quarter GDP comes in around 6.5% - Gas and oil markets begin to stabilize - Inventories remain at all-time lows due to supply issues - Corporate profit margins continue to recover

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a closer look at recent consumer spending trends. Spending has started to stabilize. What are consumers doing with their money? In other news, forbearance and eviction protection is coming to an end this week. Will it be extended? All eyes continue to be on the Federal Reserve. What will their next actions be? Tune in to learn about all this and more! Key Takeaways: - 30 year mortgages continue to drop - The 2020 recession was shortest on record - Drought in the western states continue to pose problems

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss inflation and the jobs outlook. Core inflation has continued to rise, reaching about 3.4% YOY. Spending has remained muted, savings rates are at all-time highs, food and gas prices have risen, but with the Federal Reserve’s target still at 2%, where will inflation be at the end of the year? Job growth is rebounding faster than any other recession Post WWII, but when will we see full employment? Tune in to learn about all this and more! Key Takeaways: - Personal savings rates continue to sit at all-time highs - Medium home prices remain high with low market supply - Low yields continue in investment-grade corporate bonds - 2021 1st Quarter GDP estimate comes in at 6.4%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a deeper look at inflation. With core inflation rising to 3.8%, is this price inflation in the market a long-term trend or transitory? Unemployment numbers continue to shrink as unemployment benefits lessen and folks get back to work. U.S. imports begin to increase again as demand for cars and other goods skyrocket. TSA Checkpoint travel numbers have drastically increased, showing that Americans are ready for a summer vacation. There is a major drought out West, which states and industries have been affected the most? Tune in to hear about all this and more! This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a deeper look at inflation. With core inflation rising to 3.8%, is this price inflation in the market a long-term trend or transitory? Unemployment numbers continue to shrink as unemployment benefits lessen and folks get back to work. U.S. imports begin to increase again as demand for cars and other goods skyrocket. TSA Checkpoint travel numbers have drastically increase

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we will address inflation and consumer spending. Core inflation year over year jumped in April. The Federal Reserve’s target is still 2%, where will it be at the end of the year? Spending is back to where it was, however, most consumers are still sitting on a lot of cash. Will this keep inflation at bay? Tune in to learn about all this and more! Key Takeaways: - Oil is little changed despite the cybersecurity issue on east coast - 30 year mortgages continue to steady - Hourly wages pick up as service industry reopens - The U.S. dollar is still the world reserve currency, by a lot

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the increase in consumer spending and the uptick in inflation. Inflation has seen a small increase, mainly driven from the current energy sector. There has been an increase in consumer spending, with the fastest pace of consumer spending on record this past March. The question is, will it continue and where is the money coming from? Personal savings has continued to grow to all-time highs as people continue to wait to spend money on travel, entertainment, etc. Tune in to learn about all this and more! Key Takeaways: - U.S. Retail Sales rise at second fastest pace on record - Headline CPI grows higher, driven by energy, yet remains below 2% - Personal savings continue to grow to all-time highs - Earnings and profits drive stock market higher

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the recent change in inflation and the current housing market. There has been a boost in headline inflation, driven by rising fuel prices and increased travel. Is this trend here to stay or is it a temporary reaction? Personal savings grew over the last year, but consumers are looking to make up for lost time with increased spending in 2021. Low housing inventory is driving up prices, but which sector of the housing market has the lowest supply? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: -Retail Sales hit a new high after a year of increased savings -Headline CPI grows higher, driven by fuel prices, while Core CPI stays under 2% -Gasoline supply returns to pre-pandemic levels as travel improves -Sparce inventory in low-income housing has driven up prices, while interest rates remain low -State and local tax revenue continued to grow in 2020, despite the pandemic

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we examine the future of individual and government spending. Personal income has seen a boost in the last year, thanks to unemployment benefits and government stimulus. President Biden has released details for a $2 trillion dollar infrastructure plan. Where does he plan to spend the most money? Which tech giant has added over half a million jobs in the last year? Tune in to hear about all of this and more! Key Takeaways: - GDP numbers continue to slowly increase - Biden’s Infrastructure plan includes spending $620 billion on transportation, with a large allotment to electric vehicles - Corporate profits continue to grow - In the last year, Amazon hired more employees than 136 other top companies combined - Corporate taxes are relatively low, but most likely will see an increase

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the current interest rate environment and fears of inflation. The 10 year treasury has continued to rise forcing bond prices lower. Where will the 10 year yield end up? Fears around inflation may be outweighing reality. The yield curve is steepening, but what does that mean? Will the new administration be able to close the funding gap? Tune in to find out more! Key Takeaways: - Oil prices remain steady - Unemployment continues to trend in the right direction - The housing market is still robust - New business applications are on the rise

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we take a look at the nation’s debt levels and the direction of interest rates. The recent movement in Congress on another stimulus package will add another $1.9 trillion to the nation’s debt. Are these debt levels sustainable? What’s the impact of the debt and will it be manageable when interest rates rise? The stock market has experienced recent volatility, specifically in the tech sector. Where will the index be at the end of 2021? Tune in to find out more! Key Takeaways: • Current stimulus package is around 9% of GDP • Personal Income continues to rise due to stimulus checks • Oil prices reach mid $60s • Unemployment continues to decline

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we examine the state of inflation and the future of the bond market. The yield curve continues to normalize as long-term interest rates slowly creep up. Overall inflation has stayed low, but there are sectors that have seen major price inflation. We are still in the midst of a bull market; how do the last 11 months compare to previous bull markets? Investment-grade bonds were a place of comfort during a volatile year, but has that changed in 2021? Tune in to learn more! Key Take-aways: - Textbooks and college tuition led price inflation from 1996-2006 - As industrial and manufacturing production return to pre-pandemic levels, so does U.S. imports and exports - The current bull market is up 75% from the low in March, the second largest bull market return - Leveraged loans and high-yield debt start the year off strong - Paying off all student debt would cost $1.5 trillion

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the recovery of consumer spending. Since the start of the pandemic, consumer spending is trending up and credit card balances are trending down. Will this continue in 2021 and what impact will it have on GDP? The Federal Reserve expects to keep rates low for at least 12-18 months. As the Fed continues to buy debt, what will that do to the yield curve and treasury markets? Tune in to find out more! Key Takeaways: - Oil prices are steadily increasing. - Fourth quarter GDP estimates are around 4%, we expect it to be revised higher. - 30-year mortgages are still under 3%. - Unemployment steadily declines.

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we examine where U.S. citizens and the government are spending money. As the end of year numbers start to roll in, it looks like consumers did not hold back when it came to holiday spending. Part of that spending included an increase in imported goods, but one import is being left behind as the U.S. produces more stateside. Many public companies are sitting on a plethora of cash, but what about Americans and non-profits? The value of real estate continues to increase, but are the trends far off from what we have seen historically? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: - We are importing more goods than ever, but less petroleum - Americans still have trillions of dollars sitting in savings accounts - Household asset values continue to climb, a lot in thanks to real estate values - Manufacturing has almost returned to pre-pandemic levels - The U.S. dollar is at its lowest point since 2018

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at the start of 2021 in terms of economic data. Unemployment holds steady around 6.7%. Manufacturing data continues to expand and improve. Oil prices break $50 to start the year. What impacts will Saudi Arabia and Russia have on the oil markets in 2021? Government debt continues to pile up. What are the risks and is it a problem? State revenues are looking better than projected. Will there be another stimulus? Tune in to find out. Key Takeaways: - Annual Hiring is picking up - Oil prices break $50 - The Federal Deficit continues to climb - Inflation is still muted, but treasury yields are creeping higher.