Macro Horizons

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss three major adjustments impacting their markets in recent weeks. First, the Fed’s changing outlook on inflation including the risk inflation is higher and more persistent than expected. Second, they discuss an adjustment to the IG index controlling for credit quality and duration which shows in spreads trading well within all-time tights. Finally, they discuss the impact of the Fed’s technical adjustment on the front-end.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 21st, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their takeaways from the June FOMC which featured a more hawkish outlook from the Summary of Economic Projections, an acknowledgement that the Fed might be underestimating the likely path of inflation, and a technical adjustment to the Fed’s administered rates. They conclude with a brief discussion on what tapering will likely mean for credit spreads later this year.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 14th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the factors most likely to break spreads from current ranges including relative value, the Fed’s plan to sell SMCCF holdings, and technicals. They then discuss recent developments in the LIBOR transition, including the proliferation of BSBY and ARRC’s guidance that term SOFR will be available by early-August.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 7th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Dan Krieter, Ben Reitzes, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from BMO’s FICC Macro Strategy team to bring you their discussion of the market’s pricing of inflation risk and the richness in money markets and what these themes imply for US and Canadian rates, high quality spreads and foreign exchange.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 1st, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of May 24th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the recent resilience in credit spreads despite volatility in other asset classes. They offer two competing interpretations of the stability, with ramifications for the near term path of credit.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of May 17th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Dan Krieter, Ben Reitzes, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from BMO's FICC Macro Strategy team bring you their debate of the main narratives that are dominating market pricing and what these themes imply for US and Canadian rates, high quality spreads and foreign exchange.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of May 10th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the impact of the Fed’s eventual tapering announcement on spread markets. Topics include the potential for a severe market reaction like 2013 as well as the near-term vs. long-term impacts of the removal of Fed accommodation.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of May 3rd, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their takeaways from the April FOMC meeting and press conference which largely centered around the Fed’s dual mandate of full employment and stable prices, the potential for regulation of the non-bank financial sector, and financial stability concerns. Dan and Dan then discuss the reasons behind the recent change in their view on credit spreads.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of April 26th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss recent developments regarding three pivotal areas of change in fixed income and how they impact spreads markets, including regulation and a move towards sustainability in finance.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of April 19th, 2021, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the various factors set to drive the path of credit spreads in Q2, including their outlook for market technicals and fundamentals.